One of my favorite jokes to make while watching an NBA game is, “Daryl Morey and his consequences have been a disaster for the human race.” In another life, I look at Daryl Morey and Billy Bean with the same admiration. Each presents a kaleidoscope of raw talent mismashed with delectable bits of data. Yet, every time I hear the name Daryl Morey, I have to run into an enclosed room to stop my self from transforming into an NBA contrarian.
It’s gone so far that even when I see James Harden (Morey’s sugar baby) I get annoyed. Truly, there’s probably something to do with Daryl Morey’s hypothesis coupled with Steph Curry’s rise that has led to this reign of threes. But we’ve gone so far into the threepointverse we have college centers taking threes and making them.
As someone who can only hope to go pro in hating, I’m very happy that Syracuse University has my back. In his Rio Grande lab, Daryl Morey cooked up the coked up Frankenstein’s Monster of basketball contingent on playing quickly and shooting a disgusting amount of threes. If only Wilt Chamberlain had this data he would have totally scored 200 points in that one game that definitely happened. But, according to researchers at Syracuse University, we have finally hit the critical capacity point where the 3-pointer has lost its spectacle.
You can read the report here.
Moreyflation
I always feel the need to clarify in these blog that I’ve always been a bigger fan of college basketball. I went to a Rockets game last year, after watching almost no NBA, and realizing how much better the players were than the usual college collective I watch. They were much better, but it was way more boring (maybe it’s because the Rockets were really bad). And, for that, I felt partially crazy.
But, I am statistically correct. Researchers from Syracuse University have an Enron and developed a new way to read shot charts – generalized additive model (GAM) – which estimates total shot proficiency. This is just a very fancy way of saying that the model tracks how many points are expected of a shot from a certain zone. It’s the xG of basketball, which I am always ready to include in any discussion about soccer.
The research vindicates everything I’ve been feeling, my hate for Daryl Morey was correct. The 3-point revolution has changed the original data, and now 3-point shots are, statistically, worth less than a shot from inside the line. I’m going to give Daryl one out of this research, and it’s the fact the researchers included missed shots that resulted in free throws as part of the research. But that didn’t really change the data.
Including free throws, a a 2-point attempt is worth 1.181 points, where a 3-point shot is worth 1.094 points. Even without free throws, 2-point attempts are still worth more; 2-points are worth 1.096 points, and 3-point attempts are worth 1.083. What does this mean? We have officially crossed the shooting Rubicon and are in the new era of 3-point deflation. Morey and his consequences have truly killed the 3-point (though I could throw Steph and Klay into this analysis, but that’s just natural talent).
I read this entire study as “good shooters should keep shooting, and bad shooters should move closer,” which is not generational information. Maybe if you’re shooting below 10pc from three, think about moving into the midrange. Or maybe, pass the ball, even though that’s not how you get the baddies in the front row to notice you (they already have children with several NBA players).
Moreyheimmer
I have a whole blog cooked in my head about how basketball is the slowest to change tactics on a macro-scale. The 3-point renaissance and slow descent is a part of that. Football is the fastest, where offensive schemes can be created and destroyed in a matter of seasons one a potential fix is introduced (see The Tusch Push). Baseball is somewhere in the middle, except the League comes in and squashes a tactical change because it, admittedly, did make the game kind of suck. This blog, by a guy who loves Fangraphs, is partially about getting the stats nerds out of sports (unless Kyle Shanahan can blame them).
The natural outcome of moving to a 3-point based economy is like that of a South American country moving to a new economic system; at some point the money blows up and slice of bread is worth a trillion dollars. Of course, now that the 3-point has been devalued so much, there are already executives behind the scene strategizing to create a fouls-based team. The report analyzed 2-points with the addition of fouls and free throws. I don’t doubt the Summer League in the next few years has some concocted team that runs on fouls.
As much as I hate on Daryl Morey, he wasn’t the only one who understood the value of the 3-point. He was just the Oppenheimer of the situation; his Los Alamos was in the Rio Grande Valley instead, on the back of a middling Division 3 coach. (If you’re interested, read this article from Grantland).
I wish I could end this blog with “I can’t wait until we get the small game back.” But, in reality, we’re still probably a tactical era or two away from returning to the post-centric game that made up a lot of the “Golden Age”. So, in 10 years, when elderly league runners are still convinced the 3-pointer is the statistically best way to shoot, imagine hanging Daryl Morey up by this thumbs.
Anyway.
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