The title gives the entirety of this blog’s premise away. I think Ohio State is going to win the National Championship. This means I have to get something out of the way: I genuinely don’t want this to happen. If I had my way, Ohio State would end up getting completely embarrassed by Tennessee, leading to the public execution of Ryan Day at midfield as the crowd propels itself into a mobbed frenzy with the stench of tater tot casserole and cheap, bad beer.
Thanks to college basketball I just have this deep hatred of the Big 10. Moreso, I hate the absolute arrogance dripping from the non-existent fangs of schools that get propped up because of their infiltration into the sports media landscape. “Well, Ohio State-Michigan is the best rivalry because it’s literally called ‘The Game’.” Well, this blog is now the most important blog you’ve ever heard of. If you disagree some talking head at ESPN (Northwestern grad) and Boss Hogg lookalike will come on TV and finger-wag until his jowls are bursting from overuse at the mere indication the Big 10/Moon Stamp Sports is anything less than the standard for sports worldwide. He will then subtweet you, and his echo-chambered followers will flock to feast on a fresh and new, old opinion.
The bloviation of regional arrogance.
With that out of the way – yes, I’m serious. I think Ohio State is going to win the National Championship. As much as I hate the stance I’m taking, it’s a vaguely data-backed position.
As a college basketball fan, I’ve been around the tournament Sun many times in my life. I have spent my life trying to hack the March Madness bracket as I painfully lose to brothers, casuals, and, worst of all, dogs. In that sense, maybe I should find a new angle. But like a brutalist architect, I’m convinced my angle is right.
Hacking the National Championship Bracket
I mentioned college basketball to give some sort of framework to my thinking. Every year I see this trend (as I have already seen this year) where people try and hack the national champion. It’s an age old tradition of trying to get one up on the impossible statistical odds of choosing the correct bracket; meanwhile, it will give you a much better chance of finding the correct national champion. Choose the right champion, and get more points – it’s simple.
With only 12 teams to choose from. And with some, like Clemson, being pretty obvious non-choices, I wanted to find a way to pick the correct National Champion. Unlike the Tournament, there’s no Cinderella story here; most of these teams have a real shot at winning. Especially in a year where, despite Oregon’s #1 spot dominance, there doesn’t seem to be a solid, clear-cut choice.
So, just like a person trying to hack the national champion in college basketball, I wanted to find the key stats where football national champions differentiated themselves.
I’ll admit I did not go as deep into statistics as I would college basketball, where I am obsessed with play speed. Maybe out of laziness, or, maybe out of a want to test my luck, I looked at just general statistics. I also only went back to the 2021 season, out of an abundance of caution for play differentials and also the new teams who are dominating. Also maybe out of laziness (I’m no Jon Bois).
But, for now, I’ve found a few key statistics:
- Offensive Penalties
- Turnover Differential (Number of Off. Turnovers – Number of Def. Turnovers)
- Number of Plays (Offense)
- Number of Plays (Defense)
- Average Defensive Yards Given Up
The implication is that good teams are good. But, somewhat better, they have good and quick defenses. Teams that won the National Championship were either (usually) first or second in these statistics, usually first. While these may be anomalistic stats, I think it’s enough to create a good foundation for a theory. It also didn’t matter which conference these teams were from; the statistics remained the same.
| 2023 | Off. Pens. | Turn. Diff. | Off. Plays | Def. Plays | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 3.0 | -1.3 | 61.6 | 57.7 | 247.0 |
| Washington | 7.5 | 0.0 | 65.7 | 70.5 | 406.1 |
| Texas | 6.6 | -0.4 | 71.6 | 64.3 | 336.7 |
| Alabama | 5.6 | -0.6 | 63.3 | 63.1 | 316.0 |
| 2022 | Off. Pens. | Turn. Diff. | Off. Plays | Def. Plays | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 4.4 | -0.1 | 70.0 | 60.8 | 296.8 |
| TCU | 4.8 | -0.4 | 68.0 | 70.5 | 408.2 |
| Michigan | 4.1 | -0.6 | 69.3 | 62.8 | 292.1 |
| Ohio State | 5.6 | -0.6 | 67.4 | 62.1 | 321.5 |
| 2021 | Off. Pens. | Turn Diff. | Off. Plays | Def. Plays | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 5.1 | -0.3 | 63.2 | 64.7 | 268.5 |
| Alabama | 7.1 | -0.1 | 74.5 | 63.7 | 302.9 |
| Michigan | 4.9 | -0.1 | 69.3 | 67.1 | 330.4 |
| Cincy | 7.3 | -1.0 | 61.4 | 71.1 | 318.4 |
I’d like to point out a very key flaw in my data. Good teams – like national champions – have good stats. Especially stats that matter. In this case, there is a likely chance that correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation. Good teams are just good; they rise to the top of all statistical fields.
I am fully aware of those flaws and will be analyzing whether my other picks based on this data lead to success. I am also fully prepared to be completely and totally wrong on the internet forever. This experiment will evolve as the data evolves.
Ohio State’s Statistical Dominance
When I decided to delve into the determined categories for this year’s teams I foresaw using guesswork to do a lot of heavy lifting. I was undeniably very wrong. I had expected there to be multiple teams with real dominance in these categories. What I found was a near-clean sweep of the statistics.
| 2024 | Off. Pens. | Turn. Diff. | Off. Plays | Def. Plays | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson (12) | 4.9 | -1.2 | 72.2 | 67.1 | 364.9 |
| SMU (11) | 8.2 | 0 | 69.6 | 70.2 | 326.1 |
| Indiana (10) | 4.8 | -1.2 | 65.9 | 59.3 | 244.8 |
| Tenn. (9) | 8.3 | -0.4 | 74.0 | 64.3 | 278.3 |
| Ohio St. (8) | 4.3 | -0.3 | 62.4 | 58.8 | 241.1 |
| ND (7) | 5.8 | -1.3 | 62.8 | 65.5 | 296.8 |
| Penn. (6) | 4.9 | -0.4 | 65.8 | 60.6 | 282.1 |
| UT (5) | 6.5 | -0.5 | 71.3 | 62.3 | 249.5 |
| ASU (4) | 6.5 | -1.1 | 67.4 | 65.3 | 336.9 |
| Boise St. (3) | 4.8 | -0.6 | 68.8 | 64.5 | 361.9 |
| Georgia (2) | 5.8 | -0.1 | 67.8 | 65.7 | 336.5 |
| Oregon (1) | 5.5 | -0.6 | 68.4 | 61.8 | 301.8 |
I fully expected to create this chart before filming the pod and make a ton of logical leaps. I didn’t expect any one team to be this dominant for these stats; it really shows the dominance of Ohio State’s defense. One first look, it also greatly upset me because that’s the last outcome I wanted.
Listen, the funniest outcome is that Ohio State wins the national championship, but Ryan Day loses his job. The problem is that I think most people have forgotten that Ohio State is a legitimately good football team that got outplayed in a rivalry game. I’ve had my issues with the Big 10 this season – namely the size of the conference. There are just too many bad teams that the good teams are playing, due to the fact there are 18 members. Again, with that said, I think Ohio State is a good football team.
They say defense wins championships, and I’d imagine that applies to the Playoff. If a team’s defense is good enough, they can stave off any offense, no matter how good. Ohio State seemingly has the best (statistical) defense in this entire field. I also fully believe the number of plays factors greatly; keeping everyone fresh on both sides of the ball is just common sense. Again, good teams are good.
I’m fully prepared to be incredibly wrong on this. Trying to hack college basketball has not gone well for me. I have come behind a dog before (even if she is scary intelligent. Does anyone else have a street dog who seems they have their brain replaced with that of a human toddler?). So beforehand, I should congratulate Tennessee (to CYA). Also, Ohio State has a depleted O-Line, which doesn’t factor into this (I trust the stats).
This 12-team Playoff is an endeavor into the unknown. Much like a bachelorette party who fully admits Nashville is ready for them, no one really knows what the outcome will be. I am pretty convinced a team that plays in the first round is winning. It’s also entirely possible Oregon runs the gauntlet and proves itself to be the true #1.
I’m ready to admit to the internet forever that I truly don’t know ball. But, if I’m right, I’d like to apologize to all Ryan Day haters. No one will hate me more than I hate myself for this prediction.
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