The most interesting story of the 2024 Astros season is not the pitcher merry-go-round or the Kyle Tucker homerun renaissance. The Jon Singleton redemption has gotten a little play. No one has told the executives that, but there’s some play. No, the story of the season has been the Jose Abreu situation. The Jose Abreu situation intersects with the new management, Crane decision-making, and the Jeff Bagwell administration’s (and Dana Brown’s, but it’s more fun to blame my childhood hero) slide back into a pre-Moneyball understanding of baseball. And even when we thought we were finally a little free from the Abreu stranglehold, he returned to us. So now comes the question – where does this go?
The New Astros Management Era
I could sit here and discuss why I think Jim Crane is slowly creeping toward the Jerry Jones school of owning a team. But I can understand why he is kind of where he is. Jim Crane is, from the outside looking in, obsessively trying to change the way the Astros are perceived. After 2019, the Astros have been the social and league pariahs. I wrote earlier in the season about how the Astros’ social media game has been a lot less incendiary this season. The quippy team from last season left for better jobs (after doing a great job), so now there is a new social media regime.
What I can’t understand is what has become of the baseball operations team. I can understand why Jeff Lunhow has gone. Though, in my mind, the Astros needed to go the way of the Red Sox and just re-hire AJ Hinch and Jeff Lunhow. But, given where the Crane-era is now, I understand. Also, that’s how you establish yourself as THE bad guys.
However, Crane has restructured the organization to fit the image he wants. An older school image, that isn’t tainted by the analytics-forwardness of the old regime. The old regime that got the Astros to dynasty status. That same regime that got the Astros to seven straight ALCS appearances. You know, those losers. Sure, they committed some light cheating, but who doesn’t?
I’ll be upfront, and for readers, this isn’t new, I love analytics. I love advanced stats; I go crazy for xG. I’ve mentioned Moneyball, but the first time I read the book I was transported to a new understanding of how sports work. Make a joke about making up a player in the aggregate, and I’m there every time. But the Astros front office seems to be opposed to analytics. From Jeff Bagwell talking about how “computers” were too involved to Dana Brown expressing how he’ll use analytics sometimes. This led to where Astros’ analyst Michael Connor came out and said he missed Jeff Lunhow.
And so, here we are, in this weird place for the first time in years. The division sucks, but so do we. And the new management has no one to blame but themselves for where the Astros are.
The Jose Abreu Situation
And all that brings us to Jose Abreu. Before writing this blog, I was going to give Abreu three games to just see where he went. Sure, he went 0-7 in Triple-A, but maybe he gets back to the ballpark and it all comes together. When we signed Abreu I was actually excited. He was a solid addition to the lineup who was two seasons off of an AL MVP season. Sadly, even my cognitive dissonance could not live up to the actuality of the situation. The Dodgers’ championship is a Michael Mouse championship, and Jose Abreu’s AL MVP follows the same status.
I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt last season. Sometimes, things are just off. You move cities and clubs and all of a sudden all those things that used to click, just really don’t. Last season saw Jose Abreu have his worst full season of batting (I’m not counting this season yet). Abreu didn’t have his worst fielding season, but he’s been on a downward trend for a while. This all leads to where we are now, watching an abysmal season by a man pushing 40 and making about $20 million (which could be saved for the Kyle Tucker contract).
There’s really no reason to delve into this season. Everyone knows what’s happening; the horrible play, the demotion, and the unpopular call-up. And after the first game, with an RBI, I had maybe a little belief it was better. But then last night he didn’t get a hit, and contributed two strikeouts to the total. And while I don’t think the following plays were easy, because of where Abreu is on the shit list, they look horrible.
The Abreu Experiment
And the question I posed in the beginning, of where do we go, I don’t think I know the answer. Dana Brown comes out and gives hope that he’ll actually call Joey Loperfido back up, or give Singleton a continued chance. But, with the way the front office is treating Abreu, I don’t see a world where he gets dropped again this season. In my opinion, Jose Abreu’s disappearance was a modified injury rehab; get the swing fixed and get back. But nothing is fixed. It may even be worse because Abreu’s confidence has been killed.
While I want to believe the Astros will value winning over a failed signing, they’ve shown no signs of actually reforming the team. The Astros have become a corporate machine of targeted messaging to deal with any PR crisis. The “back of the card” line felt something akin to a statement Roman Roy would put out after an exploding spaceship. I don’t think Dana Brown is a puppet, but he is living in an ecosystem that rewards compliance with the new old-school thinking.
I was a huge fan of what the Astros became. But watching the downfall of what became a front office dedicated to winning is hard. And the Jose Abreu story isn’t going away. If anything I expect the administration to double down on the message. With that said, maybe the dynasty doesn’t fall with a happy ending but with barbarians at the gates. And there is no Eastern section to save them.
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