I Am Feeling Better About the Kyle Tucker Trade

Last week, my mood could be summed up pretty simply as melancholic acceptance. For weeks on the podcast, I have been very weary of the Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman sagas. Streets have been saying for the last year or so that Kyle Tucker is leaving of his own volition. Alex Bregman has been holding out for more money as Scott Boras1 uses the new Juan Soto and Willy Adames-set market to ask for more money.2 We will see what happens with Bregman, but once the Kyle Tucker trade rumors started to amass on the Twitter border, I knew that the time had come. Dana Brown had to send away Kyle Tucker in hopes of diminishing the losses of Bregman.3

@moon.stamp.sports

Kyle Tucker has left the Astros for the Cubs, which leaves Alex Bregman as the last big re-signing the Astros can make. Dana Brown and Jim Crane won’t do that. #fyp #astros #mlb #mlbtrades #houstonastros #baseball #bregman #kyletucker #Altuve

♬ original sound – Moon Stamp Sports – Moon Stamp Sports

I don’t need to write the full history out for you; you know how the story ends.4 Seeing the barbarians at the gates (players leaving), Dana Brown squeezed what he could from the value of Kyle Tucker in hopes of mitigating his and Bregman’s probable departure. I even had a blog cooked up about a farewell to Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. People have been speaking about the fall of the dynasty, but more realistically, it is the end of a defined era of Astros dominance. I’m actually not ready to say the dynasty is over yet; next year could bring renewed vigor. But that 2019 World Series team – which should have won (at-ing AJ Hinch for pulling Greinke) – is fully dead. However, the loss of Kyle Tucker points to a very real reality: time moves on.

With this movement of time comes a need to reframe and rebuild because players’ bodies cannot last forever. The game changes and stats change and perspectives change leading to a necessary change to stay competitive. Jerry Krause will be looked back as the main antagonist of the 90s Bulls, and some of it rightfully so. Getting rid of Phil Jackson is inexcusable; letting a lot of the core leave for essentially nothing is inexcusable. The fact he wanted to be the big man somewhere and, like a Rian Johnson, film was not as smart as he imagined he was led to disaster. With that said he saw the end coming. You should not wait until the end of a dynasty to start looking ahead, as some suggest. You rebuild when you can; it’s like filling up your spare tire before you need it.

Hit It Like a Crawford

So, in that sense, I understand why Dana Brown is doing what he is doing. He’s future-proofing his team against the inevitable downfall all American teams must experience (see the Patriots right now). I did say Dana Brown is not a future proofer. And given how the Kikuchi5 trade went, and the Abreu signing, Dana Brown has done nothing to prove me wrong. Until, the Tucker trade (potentially, give him time to do the opposite of cook).

Because since the trash can “scandal” the Astros have done one thing pretty consistently – hit horribly at home. I don’t know what it is, but it feels like every season the Astros – especially in the playoffs – I see a team of baseball players forget how to indulge in a very important aspect of baseball. So how do you fix that? Other than hiring trash can hitters on Indeed? You create a team that plays to the strengths of the ballpark you play half your games at and is really advantageous to a specific kind of hitter.

The plan? Build a section of the ballpark for a seafood restaurant and let bad full-ballpark hitters rake.

And that specific kind of hitter happens to be Isaac Paredes. Isaac Paredes is not a hitter you look at and think “wow this guy is going to rake.” Actually, in the new era, you’d think the opposite. His main flaw is that he cannot hit the ball hard. That’s also his strength because a lot of the new age metrics depend on exit velocity. You see, Isaac Paredes is an anomaly. He drives FanGraphs writers wild to the point he is a normal topic of conversation.

Isaac Paredes does two things well, making him a perfect candidate for Minute Maide (Daikin in a week and a half). He hit a lot of fly balls and he pulls the ball at a disgusting rate. Baseball Reference has Paredes pulling the ball on 43.2% of hit batted balls in 2024, while Baseball Savant has him pulling 50.4% of the time. And like putting together Jar of Greed in an Exodia deck, Paredes also hits a lot of fly balls. Baseball Reference has him hitting a fly ball in 2024 on 25.3% of batted balls (down from 31.3% in 2023); Baseball Savant has him at 29.3% (up from 28.4% in 2023).

All that leads to something like this potential batting chart:

Credit: Baseball Savant

Paredes in Minute Maid/Daikin is a potential cheat code. I say potential because Mancini was also a cheat code and that definitely worked out super well. But there is another chart that gives me hope.

Credit: FanGraphs

Jose Altuve, the ride-ist and die-ist of all Astros, also has an incredible air pull rate. The man who I have watched countless times pull magic from out of nowhere6 by blasting a ball into left field has an apparent regen (not really because he’s horrible at baserunning, among other things). The reason I am less down about the Tucker trade is because I see the potential that Dana Brown is cooking with. Now, he is not known for cooking. But allow me to have hope, because the Astros have consistently proven me wrong, even when I say their dynasty is dead.

Also, Paredes is in the top 7% in the MLB in walks. Which is, you know, good:

A Tucker for a “Bregman”

In the TikTok above, I had mentioned getting two players for Tucker. Turns out we got three guys. (DM me for 9-leg parlays that will make Togi look reasonable.) One of those players was Hayden Wesneski. I really won’t speak much about him, but he looks like a very good flex option; he can come out of the bullpen and give a solid inning or two. He can also start games if he needs to.

What I’m focused on is Cam Smith. For the last couple of years, the Astros have been ranked toward the bottom of farm systems (never mind the Space Cowboys winning the Triple-A National Championship). This is not surprising, because consistently winning and not getting in the lottery leads to worse draft picks. Along with that substantial front office change and changes in team-building strategy can leave a team with a depleted farm. Couple that with Dana Brown letting future stars7 go to Toronto for a loan player, and you have a farm system of middling stars (according to rankings). Which is why adding Cam Smith to the farm rocks.

Now, disclaimer, just because a player is highly rated doesn’t mean he’ll make it far in the MLB or even to the MLB. I’m old enough to remember when Forrest Whitley was the next ace of Houston. With that disclaimed I present this:

Credit: MLB.com

Even if he isn’t expected in the MLB until 2026, it’s incredible to have him waiting in the wings if needed. And he’ll hopefully be developing on a championship-level minor league team. Cam Smith is also the 73rd-best prospect in baseball and the fifth-best third baseman. If he develops as hoped, there is a real chance we’re without a proper Bregman replacement for one season. This is of course all hope.

I was going to compare the stats of Bregman and Cam Smith, but Cam Smith has a whopping 147 plate appearances in the minor leagues. Comparing that to Bregman’s totals feels statistically insignificant. I have hope, for now. Dana Brown has proven my lack of faith in him right before, though.

All this to say, we may have actually gotten a good haul in the aggregate. Especially for a one-year player in Tucker. I’m hoping for the best, including the talk of potentially adding another player. There is a spring of faith in me from “it’s so over” to “we’re so back.” I still love Kyle Tucker, though, and will miss him dearly. The man who caught the last out of the 2022 World Series has left. We may have won the aggregate war, but there’s a hole in my heart.8 I do think, if everything goes according to plan, this trade was worth it.

I’m just saying:

Follow Moon Stamp Sports on Twitter/XInstagram and Facebookand follow Jorden on Twitter/X. Check out other blogs by Jorden.

  1. Hate be upon him. ↩︎
  2. I fully believe the Willy Adames to the Giants deal has made Boras and Bregman rethink their position. Instead of asking for $200 million, I can see a world where they ask for $220 million. ↩︎
  3. As I’m writing this, apparently Nolan Arenado is blocking the trade to Houston. I actually believe this is good for Houston’s chances of resigning because I believe Boras is overplaying his hand. ↩︎
  4. Trading him during a wedding is kind of an ass move. ↩︎
  5. A two-month loan for future assets leaves a lot to be desired from that trade. If Kikuchi had stayed I may have changed my tune, but he didn’t. ↩︎
  6. I’ve always wanted to call him The Little Magician but that’s too Phillipe Coutinho coded. ↩︎
  7. Potentially. But for the purposes of this blog, they were. ↩︎
  8. Surprisingly, the second time in my life that’s happened. This one can be fixed with good ball, though. ↩︎

Related Post

118 thoughts on “I Am Feeling Better About the Kyle Tucker Trade

  1. I do love the manner in which you have presented this situation and it does provide me a lot of fodder for thought. However, through just what I have observed, I simply wish when the reviews pack on that people continue to be on issue and in no way get started upon a tirade involving some other news of the day. Anyway, thank you for this fantastic piece and whilst I do not really concur with this in totality, I regard the standpoint.

  2. One more issue is that video games are generally serious anyway with the major focus on understanding rather than entertainment. Although, there’s an entertainment factor to keep children engaged, every game is generally designed to work on a specific expertise or curriculum, such as mathematics or science. Thanks for your publication.

  3. I was curious if you ever thought of changing the page layout of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  4. hi!,I like your writing so so much! proportion we keep up a correspondence more about your article on AOL? I require a specialist in this area to unravel my problem. May be that is you! Having a look ahead to see you.

  5. I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your blog. It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more pleasant for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to create your theme? Exceptional work!

  6. Hi there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

  7. Its like you read my mind! You appear to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a little bit, but instead of that, this is fantastic blog. An excellent read. I will certainly be back.

  8. Thanks for the points you have shared here. Something important I would like to say is that laptop memory specifications generally go up along with other innovations in the technology. For instance, whenever new generations of processors are made in the market, there is certainly usually a matching increase in the shape calls for of all laptop memory in addition to hard drive room. This is because the application operated through these processors will inevitably boost in power to benefit from the new technology.

  9. ProDentim is a distinctive oral-care formula that pairs targeted probiotics with plant-based ingredients to encourage strong teeth, comfortable gums, and reliably fresh breath.

  10. Mitolyn is a carefully developed, plant-based formula created to help support metabolic efficiency and encourage healthy, lasting weight management.

  11. Arialief is a carefully developed dietary supplement designed to naturally support individuals dealing with sciatic nerve discomfort while promoting overall nerve wellness.

  12. Maintaining prostate health is crucial for men’s overall wellness, especially as they grow older. Conditions like reduced urine flow, interrupted sleep

  13. InsuLeaf is a high-quality, naturally formulated supplement created to help maintain balanced blood glucose, support metabolic health, and boost overall vitality.

  14. ProstAfense is a premium, doctor-crafted supplement formulated to maintain optimal prostate function, enhance urinary performance, and support overall male wellness.

  15. Visium Pro is an advanced vision support formula created to help maintain eye health, sharpen visual performance, and provide daily support against modern challenges such as screen exposure and visual fatigue.

  16. ViriFlow is a dietary supplement formulated to help maintain prostate, bladder, and male reproductive health. Its blend of plant-based ingredients is designed to support urinary comfort and overall wellness as men age.

  17. Pingback: finasteride brand
  18. I enjoyed the tone of this piece. It has the same feel as good hair advice, where curly concerns are handled best with the right oil, shampoo, conditioner, salon knowledge, natural care, and consistent treatment.

  19. Aw, this was a very nice post. In idea I wish to put in writing like this moreover taking time and precise effort to make an excellent article! I procrastinate alot and by no means seem to get something done.

  20. Most often since i look for a blog Document realize that the vast majority of blog pages happen to be amateurish. Not so,We can honestly claim for which you writen is definitely great and then your webpage rock solid.

  21. Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I’m impressed! Very useful info specifically the last part 🙂 I care for such info much. I was looking for this certain information for a very long time. Thank you and good luck.

  22. Aw, this was a very nice post. In idea I wish to put in writing like this moreover taking time and precise effort to make an excellent article! I procrastinate alot and by no means seem to get something done.

  23. PurDentix is a revolutionary oral health supplement designed to support strong teeth and healthy gums. It tackles a wide range of dental concerns, including gum inflammation and tooth decay

  24. Boostaro is a modern mens wellness formula created to support daily vitality, stamina, and confidence through a practical, natural routine.

  25. I’m impressed, I need to say. Really rarely do I encounter a blog that’s both educational and entertaining, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head.

  26. Can I just say what a relief to seek out someone who actually knows what theyre speaking about on the internet. You positively know find out how to bring a problem to mild and make it important. Extra individuals have to read this and perceive this side of the story. I cant believe youre not more in style because you positively have the gift.

  27. fantastic post, very informative. I wonder why more of the ther experts in the field do not break it down like this. You should continue your writing. I am confident, you have a great readers’ base already!

  28. whoah this weblog is great i really like studying your articles. Stay up the great work! You already know, lots of persons are looking round for this information, you can aid them greatly.

  29. I’m impressed, I have to admit. Seldom do I come across a blog that’s both equally educative and engaging, and without a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is something that not enough people are speaking intelligently about. Now i’m very happy that I stumbled across this during my search for something concerning this.

  30. May I just say what a relief to uncover somebody that truly knows what they’re discussing online. You certainly know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More and more people should look at this and understand this side of your story. It’s surprising you aren’t more popular because you certainly possess the gift.

  31. Greetings! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us beneficial information. You have done a wonderful job!

  32. Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Thank you, However I am having problems with your RSS. I don’t understand the reason why I can’t join it. Is there anybody getting identical RSS issues? Anybody who knows the answer will you kindly respond? Thanx!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *