Moon Stamp Madness 2024 – East Region (Jorden)

Welcome to the most wonderful time of my year. For three weekends in a row we are blessed with the best college basketball has to offer, spread out over 65 games (I count play-in games as tournament games). As of writing this, I am yet to mentally choose a national champion. This series is where I’m going to walk through my choices, going region by region, culminating in a Final Four blog. This first blog is me choosing the East region, where I’ll end by choosing who I think is going to the Final Four from the East (spoiler: it’s pretty obvious).

There are some necessary qualifications to my bracket. I have mentioned before that I’m an advanced stats guy. I live and die at the alter of KenPom, and have used that as my main argument for UH’s potential natty run. Anyone who relies on NET is a fraud and a coward, and I include the ACC and Big 10 cowards who make up the committee.

Last year I lost to a dog. She is a very intelligent dog, but I question whether she really watched the games last season. With that in mind, and my tail between my legs (unlike the dog), I am trying very hard not to be too analytical this year. I’m going off vibes and what I know about the teams. I’m not doing outside research, I’m not messing with the NET or other ridiculous stats. 2024 is the year of a vibes based bracket.

Round of 64

1 UConn v. 16 Stetson

I don’t really need to explain this pick. As of writing I have not chosen my National Champion, and I don’t think I’ll be able to before I have a clearer picture of the Final Four. UConn is one of a couple I’m ruminating on. Not to give spoilers, because I actually pick and write in real-time, but UConn is definitely winning the East. My worry choosing them as national champions is all vibes based; too many pundits choosing them and a hesitation to choose a back-to-back champion.

8 FAU v. 9 Northwestern

Am I crazy or is Northwestern always an 8 or a 9? I cannot remember a year where they were outside the literal midrange. Which, makes sense because Northwestern is a mid team. I’m also picking them to win against my better judgement.

FAU, to me, has been fully unimpressive this season. Coming back from a Final Four season with most of the team still intact, you’d expect them to just blow through the American. They didn’t blow up the American, and watching them live cemented a few things for me (read my day 1 and day 2 AAC tournament blogs). They play down in the beginning of the game and are incredibly streaky on defense. That streakyness doesn’t translate to offense. FAU basically got this seeding based on reputation and beating Arizona.

Given that Northwestern plays defensively, the vibe goes to Northwestern. They have the honor of losing to UConn.

5 San Diego State v. 12 UAB

Last year I had two rules: don’t trust Pac-12 or MWC teams. Something with their time zone makes those teams screwy, and they will always let you down. If I remember correctly, I chose San Diego St. to lose in the first or second round. I felt genuinely good about that pick and didn’t look back. San Diego St. then punished me, by cupping my head in its hands and just applying as much pressure until my brain popped like a hormonal pimple. So, yeah, San Diego St. takes this one.

UAB is also not a 12, and probably shouldn’t be here. They are a bid stealer who lucked out after Temple decided to be good for 4 games, and then returned to its roots in the AAC final. The game was never a problem for UAB. The AAC is not what it used to be and the schedule and play does not inspire any confidence in me for UAB. Also losing to Rice is a crime. A lot of people seem to be expecting a close game, but people are saying (me) this will be an easy SDSU win. SDSU will not make it far.

4 Auburn v. 13 Yale

I’m still angry at Yale for robbing us of “Brown Energy” plastered over my screen. Those nerds embraced Brown energy and only lost because the Fates decided a dumb series of circumstances would come Brown’s way. What was with missing those last 2 free throws this weekend?

This is a pure vibe check pick as well, because I just like Auburn. Bruce Pearl has it down (whatever it is) and they’re hot right now coming out on top against a Florida team who Jon Rothstein told me shouldn’t be counted against.

6 BYU v. 11 Duquesne

Pure vibe check pick coming your way, because I know nothing about Duquesne. Call me a homer, but I just love the Big 12 teams, and want some of them to succeed (there’s a 7 seed losing in first round). BYU’s offense, if it gets hot, is pure filth. Sometimes when they shoot 3’s I think that Joseph Smith was on to something, because those shots look divinely inspired. I’d also really like the rest of the country to get introduced to Khalifa. There is no Duquesne analysis needed, I’m here for the Cougs.

3 Illinois v. 14 Morehead St.

Some in Morehead St. may take offense to this, but every year they are a school fed to the proverbial fattened cows, and ends up losing every year. I despise every team coming out of the Big 10, but in all good conscious I must choose the hot team to go through.

7 Washington St. v. 10 Drake

My head says Drake but my heart says Washington St. The Pac-12 has died (I know some sports are still going, but let’s call it what it is). The end of the Pac-12 tournament had a montage of Pac-12 winners, and great moments from the conference. Every part of my soul wants a Pac-12 team to win this, and create that perfect ending. The ending Washington failed to bring. Sadly, Washington St. will also fail to finish the story. Kyle Smith is also an analytics guy and I love to see that.

With all that said, I need Drake to win to make up for Indiana St.’s snub. I wanted Indiana St. so badly in this tournament, and not only because of Cream Abdul Jabar. Along with that Tucker DeVries is not going to have another disaster class. In a close game, Drake wins.

2 Iowa St. v. 15 South Dakota St.

I’ve heard all season how this South Dakota St. team is one of the best low-majors and is going to come out to kill in the tournament. Excuse my language when I say they’re about to get walloped. I don’t care how good this team is, Iowa St. is a one seed who got screwed and placed as the lowest two sed. That is a grievous mistake by the committee, and a team that just murdered Houston is going to take all that anger out on South Dakota St. Every member of that fraudulent committee is liable for what is about to be done to those poor men.

Expect Iowa St. to smother South Dakota St.

Round of 32

1 UConn v. 9 Northwestern

This is another non-explainer. We speak your name Northwestern and your mascot meant not to call chubby little boys fat, but husky. Both teams play a solid defense, but UConn is going to win and continue to win the East.

5 SDSU v. 4 Auburn

We’re playing with two teams here feeling matched on defense. Auburn is hot, its guard play is better (March is a guard’s game), and it’s still going to match SDSU on defense. I am trusting my advice and following the committee by not allowing for this MWC team to move on.

6 BYU v. 3 Illinois

I will mention it throughout this series, but I am a Big 10 hater. I think Purdue sweeps that conference because everyone just refuses to play solid defense, and the refs treat Edey like Brady at the end of his career. People were saying this last year, and I’m saying it this year, the Big 10’s defensive prowess is just not there. And that’s where a team like BYU, with rangey shooters and an offense that can get dangerously hot from 3 just runs circles around them. Expect this game to be high scoring with the Mormon snipers staking a claim on Illinois (historically accurate Mormons). BYU takes this and continues in the East.

Also, every pundit is going to choose Illinois. They all have Big 10 connections.

10 Drake v. 2 Iowa St.

Remember how I said I need Drake to makeup for the lack of Indiana St. here? Well they are going home. Even with the questions surrounding Iowa St.’s offense, I think they’ve finally figured it out. Early season and even midseason I wouldn’t have said their offense is very strong. And to be fair, even after the UH stomping, that performance is still an anomaly. But, it seems more and more like Iowa St. has figured it out.

I don’t think Drake’s offense can outperform the Iowa St. defense. Even if this is a close game because of poor offense from Iowa St., they still pull it out for the Big 12 matchup in the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16

1 UConn v. 4 Auburn

And this is where Auburn’s hot streak and hot offense come to an end. Again, short analysis – one is UConn, defending national champion and one won their conference tournament. I like Auburn and I think this will still be a good game, but UConn still wins.

6 BYU v. 2 Iowa St.

I think there is an argument that BYU got screwed by its seeding. In my mind, BYU is probably a 4 seed. In the East I don’t know if they beat UConn, but I think they give them a better run than Auburn will. And one of the primary reasons they got screwed is that they’ll run into Iowa St. This matchup has happened twice this season, with BYU winning in January and Iowa St. winning in March.

I would focus a bit more on the March matchup, because early Big 12 play was not a great indictor of where everyone ended up. I think Iowa St. was still figuring some things out both defensively and offensively. I expect Iowa St. to stop BYU from being a squad of prolific shooters by keeping quarters tight and not allowing for many easy 3s. Iowa St. moves on to the East Elite 8, but expect it to be pretty tight.

Elite 8 – East Region Champion

1 UConn v. 2 Iowa St.

East Region Winner: Iowa State

Haha I tricked all of you idiots. You thought I was picking UConn. I also thought I was picking UConn until I got to the Elite 8, and the more I thought about it, the more I just couldn’t pull that trigger on UConn. I love Iowa St. I love the way they play, I love that TJ Otzelberger consistently wears a shirt that’s a size or two too small, and I just love watching them play. They also did the impossible and overtook Houston for the best KenPom-rated defense. And combined with the fact UConn’s amazing offensive has never met this defense, I just couldn’t pull that trigger. There are going to be questions about their offense. As I mentioned before, I genuinely think that they finally figured it out.

I’m incredibly high on Iowa St., as you can tell, and have been the entire season. While I think the Big 12 Conference is the best in basketball (no to the Big East, and certainly not the SEC), maybe I’m being a bit a homer as you can see with my BYU picks. Also, way too many pundits are choosing UConn. Iowa St. is hungrier they are more defensive, and the committee should have made them a one seed. And they’re going to act like it.

Iowa St. wins the East and goes to Phoenix and the Final Four.

If you read this and incorporated it into your bracket, please do not credit me when it goes horribly wrong.

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