Moon Stamp Madness 2024 – South Region (Jorden)

Welcome back to Day 2 of me vibe checking my way through the tournament bracket. I don’t think I mentioned it yesterday, but I’m going through the bracket according to one seed rankings. So, today, I’m releasing my picks for the South region of the bracket. If you would like to see my picks for the East, read here.

Previously I stated I am going off general vibes this year. I also mentioned how I lost to a dog that is afraid of shadows. But I am literally losing my mind here watching the media put their picks in. This is especially egregious in the South region where a disturbing amount of people paid to talk about sports are picking Kentucky for the Final Four. These men and women are not ball knowers. They are jersey knowers. And it is driving me insane. So I am instituting an advanced metric allowance for KenPom defensive efficiency and pace of play. This will indite every person who is choosing an SEC team, even though the tournament historically favors slower and better defensive teams.

I wish most of them were just honest like Shannon Sharpe and didn’t pretend they’re picking on anything other than seeding and name value.

Any way here are my South region picks. I still have not chosen a national champion.

Round of 64

1 UH v. 16 Longwood

Probably should first address the elephant in the room, and that’s the Iowa St. loss. Yes, it looked historically bad, and it was historically bad. I also think that was kind of a fluke. UH played horribly and could not hit a shot, similar to the 2023 AAC Tournament Final. The team was hurt, subbing in freshman and pretending Damian Dunn could shoot.

I know there is some worry about the penile name curse striking UH, because it is playing Longwood. But, I imagine this is a stomping waiting to happen. And, hopefully, it’s a get back game with J’Wan no longer hobbling around the court and Jamal Shead acting like his All-American self. UH to advance.

I worry greatly about the Drake curse, though. Tilman once again being a nonce.

8 Nebraska v. 9 Texas A&M

So, hey. What in the world is happening here? Why is Texas A&M here at all and why are they a 9?Am I crazy or is the committee trying to gaslight all of us? Less than a week ago Texas A&M was pretty comfortably on the First Four Out and the general consensus was that they had to win the SEC tournament. A&M then fell to Florida in the semifinals and we all just sort of agreed that was their NIT bid. Apparently, the committee did not get that memo, putting A&M as the South 9 seed and putting them in comfortably?

I’m convinced that the computer model that the committee uses for seeding was set to college football. Because the amount of SEC schools in is pretty heinous. And the fact that A&M is a comfortably in 9-seed is even weirder.

There are a weird amount of people choosing A&M, and I fully think those people have not watched any games this season. A&M is the football pick. Even though I’ve been pretty clear I am a B1G hater, there’s just no reason A&M should be here. I know there are real-world undertones thanks to Nebraska’s AD pulling his best Benedict Arnold impression and going to A&M, but realistically Nebraska is just better. Tominaga and the rest of the team are going to shoot 3s around A&M, a team that comes from a conference allergic to defense. Nebraska to advance.

5 Wisconsin v. 12 James Madison

Going from the a team that is overseeded to a team that is underseeded. I understand one team is the SEC and the other is the Sun Belt, but come on now committee. A team doesn’t just win 31 games because they’re playing in a mid-major conference. They also beat Michigan St., a team in the beloved B1G. They’re hungry, they’re scrappy, and most importantly they’re genuinely good.

I think people are high on Wisconsin because of their B1G tournament run and the Purdue win. I don’t think it’s crazy to be weary of tournament runs equating to NCAA tournament runs. Are we forgetting that Wisconsin just got reamed at the end of the season? While none of the advanced stats say JMU should win (Off. Efficiency, Def., Efficiency, Pace), I want JMU to win.

And, obviously, it is irresponsible to not pick a 12 beating a 5. This year has just handed everyone a perfect upset. I haven’t looked at the bracket stats, but I expect a majority of brackets to have this “upset” on the board. I’m picking JMU to advance, but I want it on the record I am creating a bracket where Wisconsin wins, because advanced stat wise, it’s their game.

4 Duke v. 13 Vermont

Led by the Damar Hamlin of college basketball, Duke is coming into the tournament limping. Even though they came in second in the ACC, the Scheyer-led actual devils were murdered by UNC this season. And even though Duke is the closest thing we have to college basketball terrorists, led by the Duke white boy syndrome, I think Duke takes this.

Both teams play an especially slow pace, with Vermont ranking in the 320s for KenPom. Duke is only in the 230s. Vermont also ranks more highly than most mid-majors in defensive efficiency in the 60s. Even with that they are once again here as fodder for a P6 team. Duke is just better and will end up on top. Thank you for your yearly service, Vermont.

6 Texas Tech v. 11 NC State

NC State should be entered into a separate tournament called the NCAA Meaty Tournament. Like the NIT you must be invited, but it only has teams with big boys. I’m talking about those 6’7/6’8 300-plus pounders.

The South contains multiple wonderteams that people are going to choose because of name value. I’m talking JMU, NC State, and Oakland. I loved watching NC State dominate the tournament with DJ Burns as an assist and rebound machine. I have also said I am dangerously a homer.

As much as I like NC State and think they’re incredibly hot, they’re not that good. They weren’t going to make the tournament without a tournament win. Texas Tech plays a slower pace, has better defensive efficiency, and a better offense than NC State. I know momentum plays a huge factor, but there are certain things you can’t fake through momentum. TTU to move deeper in the South.

3 Kentucky v. 14 Oakland

Kentucky has become my ball knower litmus test. Not only does Kentucky have a ton of Blue Blood name value, Kentucky scores a lot of points. People seem to expect Kentucky to breeze through the South and possibly to the National Championship. Everyone who says that should be immediately discredited. I’ve seen both Bubba Watson and Obama (one is a great golfer and the other one is an inspiration for the outfits of Ole Miss frats) choose Kentucky for the Final Four. All of these people are genuinely stupid.

Oakland is also receiving a crazy amount of love from the nation. Go into any South region prediction video and everyone is talking about how Oakland is underrated. I feel for those people. I want to believe as well that Kentucky will fall first round. While I’ve been very non-upset so far that will come when regions weaken. Right now, Oakland is not beating Kentucky.

7 Florida v. 10 Boise St./Colorado

Listen, I’m going to keep this one simple. I think Boise St. got screwed by the committee and by the number of low-seeded bid stealers. While I don’t know who Florida is playing, Jon Rothstein has informed me never to pick against Florida in a tournament. I will keep that energy in the first round. Also people are way overestimating an injury to a backup.

2 Marquette v. 15 Western Kentucky

Call me crazy but I don’t love Marquette. Like, they’re fine, but I don’t trust Shaka Smart come March. Which, this is weird because I love the Big East and fully believe they were generally snubbed. There’s no reason the SEC should have 8 bids, while the Big East has 3. Where was the Pitino-bowl of Pitino v. Pitino? Where was Seton Hall? It was all so weird and I truly think the committee used the college football predictors instead of basketball.

With all that said, for some reason people seem to be high on this upset. I do not think that is the case. Shaka Smart would sub himself in on defense before he allowed a first round exit. Marquette moves on in the South.

Round of 32

1 Houston v. 8 Nebraska

I think the Houston loss to Iowa St. destroyed a lot of people’s brains. There are a disturbing amount of people thinking UH is about to lose in the round of 32. Maybe the AAC stench is still strong on Houston, and the tomato juice bath of this Big 12 season hasn’t washed it off. I don’t think the Aggies will be here, but if they are they are worse than they were at the beginning of the season when UH beat them.

I need to explain some trends. Defensive teams who play a slower pace of basketball tend to do way better in the tournament. Houston’s adjusted pace of play is ranked 348 out of 362 (a higher number is slower). UH’s defense is ranked second, and was basically the KenPom defensive incumbent until Iowa St. swooped in with a great end-of-season defensive run. Nebraska’s B1G training will also hurt it. UH to advance.

12 James Madison v. 4 Duke

I hate what I’m about to do. Maybe I should choose Wisconsin, because I am vaguely under the impression that the Badgers could beat the Devils. But, I think I’m sticking with JMU to win that game. This game will go like Duke in the first round last year against Oral Roberts. Everyone will believe in JMU, only for that to go away within the first 10 seconds of the game. Duke to advance

6 Texas Tech v. 3 Kentucky

This is where my Kentucky hate is about to show. I think they are incredibly overrated because the SEC just doesn’t play any defense. This means fast teams that score well look great. Tennessee and Auburn are basically the defensive exceptions. And wow guess who was one and two in the conference. And even though Kentucky beat Auburn and Tennessee (once), I still don’t think this is the team of destiny everyone seems to think it is.

Texas Tech is a slow playing team with pretty good defensive efficiency (45) and a pretty good offense. This team is probably closer to Auburn than Tennessee, and Auburn got smashed. I am fully under the impression that slower pace of play and defense will screw with Kentucky’s usual style of play. The blitzkrieg of scoring 85-plus does not mix well with what Texas Tech bring. Call me a crazy man, call me a lunatic, and call me a Big 12 evangelist. But I’m going with Tech here.

7 Florida v. 2 Marquette

Remember when I said I didn’t love Marquette? That’s still true. But I like an SEC school without a very strong resume even less. People may disagree but I’m not sure Florida should be here. (He doesn’t know ball incoming for a metric heavy team that was pretty average in their conference, propped up by its conference and a tournament run). Marquette’s offense will probably kill the defense Florida puts up.

My biggest worry is the injury situation at Marquette. Even if Tyler Kolek doesn’t play against Western Kentucky, I’m pretty sure they can get past that first round. Against Florida? I’m not as sure. Give me Marquette tentatively.

Sweet Sixteen

1 Houston v. 4 Duke

This is where the Duke run finally comes to an end. This isn’t a strong Duke team, but I think their South draw gets them to at least the Sweet Sixteen. This is of course dependent on my JMU first round assessment being correct. If this is Duke or if its Wisconsin, either way, Houston moves on. Slower pace of play, better defense, and two teams that have not faced that defensive pressure all year. Jamal Shead will have the Duke guards waiting for someone to bail them out with an easy pass. Houston to move on, but I think it will be a 7 point final spread.

6 Texas Tech v. 2 Marquette

The more I look at Marquette the more I think they’re being underestimated. I think they are a strong offensive team, especially with Kolek there with them. I also expect at this point for him to be hurting. I don’t think that oblique injury will magically disappear as Marquette goes into its hardest stretch, especially with a Tech team playing good basketball.

This entire pick is riding on a few things, and one of them is Tech out-rebounding Marquette. Give me Tech moving on in the South, but I’m not sure I love it.

Elite Eight

1 Houston v. 6 Texas Tech

People will see this entire game as a ridiculous pick. This should be Houston v. Kentucky. Hey, maybe even Nebraska v. Kentucky. I am being a homer. Maybe I have watched too much Tech and believe in them more, but I just don’t believe in Kentucky. Scoring can be stopped by good defense, which Kentucky will be. Especially with the inconsistency of Kentucky.

Maybe I’m fully overestimating Tech, but I think their path to the South’s Elite Eight is really helped by their defensive play, and their ability to overwhelm teams down on offense. This may change as the week evolves.

With all that said, Houston has beat Tech twice this season. It will happen thrice. Give me Houston to the Final Four.

South Region Winner: Houston

Possibly went a little crazy here with the Big 12 glazing, but for now I am comfortable. Especially with giving SEC teams the flak they deserve.

With all the thoughts I am having about the tournament I might start a revision section starting tomorrow. Stay tuned for my Midwest picks tomorrow.

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