Moon Stamp Madness 2024 – Midwest Region (Jorden)

Welcome to the final non-tournament day of 2024. I’ve been going region-by-region in the bracket and breaking down my picks. You can read my picks for the East and for the South, but it’s not necessary for this blog. I think the Midwest is one of the weaker regions, possibly the weakest with Purdue and Tennessee as the one and two seed. If anything, I think the West has more of a clear winner than the Midwest.

Also, yesterday I called out Barack Obama for his lack of ball knowledge. He picked Blue Bloods to go all the way – including Kentucky. That tells me he does not know ball. I am pleased to report that Joseph Robinette Biden does in fact know ball. Just look at this bracket.

Becoming a single issue voter as to what presidential candidate knows some ball. Picking NC State and Marquette in the first round? Unbelievable ball knowledge. Whichever comms intern filled this out, kudos to you.

Anyway, here are my Midwest picks. As I’m writing this I still haven’t chose a national champion, and actually have no clue who my Midwest Final Four pick is. That will come.

Round of 64

1 Purdue v. 16 Montana St./Grambling St.

I write this blog as I’m watching the Montana St. and Grambling St. game. I still think Purdue is a weak team whose weaknesses can be exploited by the right team. FDU was able to do that last year, because Purdue’s guards were weak and the team relied on Zach Edey. This isn’t a FDU situation, because this isn’t the same Purdue team.

I do expect Purdue to lose, but later. I also think Braden Smith’s role will help a lot against pressing teams. His distribution isn’t solely focused on Edey, which will really help. Even if Smith is still hurt, I don’t think that will hurt Purdue. It may be smart to Purdue because every 1 seed that has lost to a 16 seed went on to win the tournament. I’m willing to take risks. But, not now. Purdue to move on.

8 Utah State v. 9 TCU

As with a lot of 8 and 9 games, I wasn’t fully sure how to decide this one. MWC winners versus a team that did pretty well in the Big 12. Both teams had pretty good seasons and neither picked up any bad losses. TCU beat more top 10-ranked teams, but they had more of an opportunity to do so. TCU is technically stronger defensively, but plays faster. Both teams are pretty similar offensively.

Theoretically, this game will come down to rebounding and whether Emanuel Miller can go. I’m putting this down to a toss up, and I think TCU comes out with Miller, even if Osobor goes crazy crashing the glass. TCU to move on, but barely.

5 Gonzaga v. 12 McNeese State

This Gonzaga team got here fully on the weight of its name. If you had asked me their seeding before the bracket was released I would have probably said something along the lines if 6/7. This has not been a strong Gonzaga year. In a year with a lot of midmajor dominance, Gonzaga was left in the dust. I know the NET and KenPom love them, but I just don’t. Saint Mary’s will probably make a good run in the West, but I don’t expect them to win it. And they outdid Gonzaga this year.

I’ll be honest I don’t love picking McNeese. Mostly because every one else seems to love McNeese. I’m about to make a gut call pick. Every year I am told to believe in Gonzaga. And every year Gonzaga lets me down. I haven’t picked enough upsets this year. So, McNeese is moving on.

4 Kansas v. 13 Samford

Kansas better thank whatever creator they believe (they are in God’s time zone) that they were about to avoid the injuries they have until now. They are a team coming in broken and battered and looking more like the Kansas State colors. Or, the life has been strangled out of them, which is more similar to Kansas’ colors. This means that everyone is picking Kansas to lose to Samford.

I don’t fully agree. Yet. Kevin McCullar Jr. is out of the tournament. Hunter Dickinson is back, but dealing with shoulder issues. I don’t think it’s as big of an offensive deal that McCullar is out as people are making it. Don’t get me wrong here, it’s going to make life more difficult. But I don’t think it’s impossible.

Samford plays very quick basketball and relies on their offensive skills over their defensive skills. Kansas plays slower in basketball and relies on their defensive efficiency. One of the bigger problems Samford will face is its size. Their tallest starting player is 6’9, 4 inches shorter than Hunter Dickinson, a first round draft pick. Kansas is also just taller in general.

I’m giving the slightest edge to Kansas because of their defensive efficiency and height. I think Samford would need Dickinson out too for an upset. This will be a dog fight, but Kansas will walk away.

6 South Carolina v. 11 Oregon

Despite the seedings, this is actually quite an even game. Oregon is really only here because they made up this very large class of bid stealers. N’Faly Dante has also decided he will never miss a shot again. The Ducks have also reached their offensive peak for the season at the right time. If there’s one thing March loves, its a fiery team. They also play in the midrange of pace and rank 70th in defensive efficiency. They’re also pretty inconsistent.

Lamont Paris also definitely deserves to be here. He turned South Carolina around and really rocked the cock of the SEC. And while I could put the stats and the Gamecocks’ season in perspective, I’m going with the hot team. Historically, Oregon loves March. And they’re incredibly hot right now. They’re going to infect the cocks with one of the hippie STDs from that one cult. Oregon moves on.

3 Creighton v. 14 Akron

I’ll talk more about Creighton and why I love the team in the next round. They’re double digit favorites against Akron. They’re Big East defenders. Creighton moves on to the next round.

7 Texas v. 10 Colorado St.

What the hell was that game on Tuesday? Indiana St. died for this. I watched some of the most pitiful basketball I have ever seen. Virginia’s baseball team scored more than the basketball team in the first half. Colorado St. wasn’t even disadvantaged. They basically played McNeese’s non-conference schedule.

Texas is pretty overseeded here. They aren’t a 7 seed. Texas is theoretically the better team here, but it just doesn’t feel that way. They didn’t stand out in the Big 12. I’ve said before I hate the NET, but Colorado St. has a better Quad 1 record, even with a sixth place finish in the MWC. Colorado St. also plays slowly and has a better defense than Texas. Give me Colorado St.

Have fun with Alabama away you cowards.

2 Tennessee v. 15 Saint Peter’s

It’s cool to see Saint Peter’s again. This isn’t the same Saint Peter’s team America loved. And even though Tennessee has a failing problem in March, it doesn’t have the same exploitable weaknesses as Purdue of 2022. There really isn’t a ton to explain, so give me Tennessee moving on in the Midwest.

Round of 32

1 Purdue v. 9 TCU

Even though I have been a Big 12 homer throughout my picking process, I won’t be here. Listen, I still don’t like Purdue and think the B1G gives them a pass throughout the season. Teams do a poor job of defending and pressing efficiently

But, with all that said, I think TCU is a mid team. They’re nothing special, and have been pretty inconsistent throughout the season, especially in Big 12 play. They just aren’t good enough to take down this Purdue team, even if they put up a good defensive effort. Purdue to move on to the Sweet Sixteen.

12 McNeese v. 4 Kansas

I’m writing this section assuming that Hunter Dickinson can still go. That might be up in the air. If there is one think I can’t do, it’s stay away from my stats. I’m assuming Kansas comes into this game on Saturday beaten and battered. One of the most annoying things that can happen is when a team gets hot from 3. McNeese doesn’t shoot a lot from three, but when they do they are efficient. Three of McNeese’s five starters shoot higher than 40% from three.

Kansas, for as good as it is at defense, is pretty middle of the pack when it comes to defending the 3. I think a beat up Kansas coming in against a hot McNeese from three spells disaster. And, McNeese is great at getting turnovers. McNeese is actually third in the nation, behind Houston and Iowa St. Kansas, when it last played Houston and when it played Iowa St., was giving up 10+ turnovers. I think the turnovers will also kill Kansas. The Kansas story of Hunter Dickinson ends here. McNeese moves on to the Midwest Sweet Sixteen.

11 Oregon v. 3 Creighton

Alright, Oregon is hot, but that can only take a team so far. Over the season Oregon’s offensive has been pretty abysmal, even when teams play on their court. That’s like playing at Coors Field or Yankees Stadium; the opponent can’t see what’s going on. And, to add on to that, their defense has been abysmal as well. Again, Oregon is basically only here because they became a bid stealer. They do play incredibly slowly, which is good for them.

Oregon’s problem is that Creighton also plays incredibly slowly. Creighton also has one of the best defenders in America in Ryan Kalkbrenner. They do lack a solid offensive creator, but March favors the defensive. I think Creighton get the job done here and move on in the Midwest.

10 Colorado St. v. 2 Tennessee

I’ll be honest, I think this matchup kind of indicates that the Midwest is a bit weaker than the East and the South. This Tennessee team has a significant offensive cold streak problem. I don’t envision this being that hard of a game though, because Colorado St. is a middle of the pack for a high midmajor. I think Tennessee’s defense helps get it done.

Sweet Sixteen

1 Purdue v. 12 McNeese

As much as I am not a fan of Purdue, here is where the McNeese story ends. I’m not saying that Purdue is going to breeze into the Sweet Sixteen, but it will have an easier time than Samford. This kind of doesn’t matter because it will have been a week.

But, Purdue is excellent at 3 defense. Their height and health will hurt McNeese. They aren’t as susceptible to turnovers. And they have a better offense than Kansas. I think this is a rougher game, but Purdue comes out on top and moves on to the Midwest final.

3 Creighton v. 2 Tennessee

This is where I think Tennessee is about to be its normal self. Rick Barnes has shown time and time again that he just can’t get it done in March. And, I think the SEC is not as strong of a conference as its being portrayed in the media and by the committee. I also maybe don’t love Creighton, but they’re the only team I see as making it from the bottom section of that bracket.

Creighton is pretty elite defensively, not as good as Tennessee, but better than what Tennessee is used to. Topping that is a strong big man, which Tennessee has faltered against. I expect this to be a dog fight, especially in the paint. This game will be similar to the Mississippi State game. Creighton also plays pretty slowly, while Tennessee plays quickly.

Expect the Blue Jays to move on in the Midwest.

Elite Eight – Midwest Final

1 Purdue v. 3 Creighton

This is where I can finally allow myself to kill Purdue. I’m also incredibly biased and think the Big East was robbed by the committee. Zach Edey isn’t used to playing hard ball with defensive big men. He will be exposed here (before going on to get millions in the NBA). Even though Purdue’s offense is better, their defense is pretty even matched with Purdue.

Like I’ve said before, I think Purdue’s offense is inflated by the B1G play, and the fact refs are way more lenient than the tournament refs will be. I also don’t think Creighton is this giant slayer of a team, but they match up really well with Purdue and give them a challenge they haven’t seen yet. I have Creighton losing in the Final Four. But, they are in the Final Four.

Midwest Region Winner: Creighton

I’m still not one hundred percent about this region because of Tennessee and Creighton, but I’m confident enough to put it out there. I also think this was way less funny that my previous ones; I blame Kate Middleton’s disappearance. We are less than 2 hours from the start of March Madness.

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