Last week, my mood could be summed up pretty simply as melancholic acceptance. For weeks on the podcast, I have been very weary of the Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman sagas. Streets have been saying for the last year or so that Kyle Tucker is leaving of his own volition. Alex Bregman has been holding out for more money as Scott Boras1 uses the new Juan Soto and Willy Adames-set market to ask for more money.2 We will see what happens with Bregman, but once the Kyle Tucker trade rumors started to amass on the Twitter border, I knew that the time had come. Dana Brown had to send away Kyle Tucker in hopes of diminishing the losses of Bregman.3
I don’t need to write the full history out for you; you know how the story ends.4 Seeing the barbarians at the gates (players leaving), Dana Brown squeezed what he could from the value of Kyle Tucker in hopes of mitigating his and Bregman’s probable departure. I even had a blog cooked up about a farewell to Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. People have been speaking about the fall of the dynasty, but more realistically, it is the end of a defined era of Astros dominance. I’m actually not ready to say the dynasty is over yet; next year could bring renewed vigor. But that 2019 World Series team – which should have won (at-ing AJ Hinch for pulling Greinke) – is fully dead. However, the loss of Kyle Tucker points to a very real reality: time moves on.
With this movement of time comes a need to reframe and rebuild because players’ bodies cannot last forever. The game changes and stats change and perspectives change leading to a necessary change to stay competitive. Jerry Krause will be looked back as the main antagonist of the 90s Bulls, and some of it rightfully so. Getting rid of Phil Jackson is inexcusable; letting a lot of the core leave for essentially nothing is inexcusable. The fact he wanted to be the big man somewhere and, like a Rian Johnson, film was not as smart as he imagined he was led to disaster. With that said he saw the end coming. You should not wait until the end of a dynasty to start looking ahead, as some suggest. You rebuild when you can; it’s like filling up your spare tire before you need it.
Hit It Like a Crawford
So, in that sense, I understand why Dana Brown is doing what he is doing. He’s future-proofing his team against the inevitable downfall all American teams must experience (see the Patriots right now). I did say Dana Brown is not a future proofer. And given how the Kikuchi5 trade went, and the Abreu signing, Dana Brown has done nothing to prove me wrong. Until, the Tucker trade (potentially, give him time to do the opposite of cook).
Because since the trash can “scandal” the Astros have done one thing pretty consistently – hit horribly at home. I don’t know what it is, but it feels like every season the Astros – especially in the playoffs – I see a team of baseball players forget how to indulge in a very important aspect of baseball. So how do you fix that? Other than hiring trash can hitters on Indeed? You create a team that plays to the strengths of the ballpark you play half your games at and is really advantageous to a specific kind of hitter.
And that specific kind of hitter happens to be Isaac Paredes. Isaac Paredes is not a hitter you look at and think “wow this guy is going to rake.” Actually, in the new era, you’d think the opposite. His main flaw is that he cannot hit the ball hard. That’s also his strength because a lot of the new age metrics depend on exit velocity. You see, Isaac Paredes is an anomaly. He drives FanGraphs writers wild to the point he is a normal topic of conversation.
Isaac Paredes does two things well, making him a perfect candidate for Minute Maide (Daikin in a week and a half). He hit a lot of fly balls and he pulls the ball at a disgusting rate. Baseball Reference has Paredes pulling the ball on 43.2% of hit batted balls in 2024, while Baseball Savant has him pulling 50.4% of the time. And like putting together Jar of Greed in an Exodia deck, Paredes also hits a lot of fly balls. Baseball Reference has him hitting a fly ball in 2024 on 25.3% of batted balls (down from 31.3% in 2023); Baseball Savant has him at 29.3% (up from 28.4% in 2023).
All that leads to something like this potential batting chart:
Paredes in Minute Maid/Daikin is a potential cheat code. I say potential because Mancini was also a cheat code and that definitely worked out super well. But there is another chart that gives me hope.
Jose Altuve, the ride-ist and die-ist of all Astros, also has an incredible air pull rate. The man who I have watched countless times pull magic from out of nowhere6 by blasting a ball into left field has an apparent regen (not really because he’s horrible at baserunning, among other things). The reason I am less down about the Tucker trade is because I see the potential that Dana Brown is cooking with. Now, he is not known for cooking. But allow me to have hope, because the Astros have consistently proven me wrong, even when I say their dynasty is dead.
Also, Paredes is in the top 7% in the MLB in walks. Which is, you know, good:
A Tucker for a “Bregman”
In the TikTok above, I had mentioned getting two players for Tucker. Turns out we got three guys. (DM me for 9-leg parlays that will make Togi look reasonable.) One of those players was Hayden Wesneski. I really won’t speak much about him, but he looks like a very good flex option; he can come out of the bullpen and give a solid inning or two. He can also start games if he needs to.
What I’m focused on is Cam Smith. For the last couple of years, the Astros have been ranked toward the bottom of farm systems (never mind the Space Cowboys winning the Triple-A National Championship). This is not surprising, because consistently winning and not getting in the lottery leads to worse draft picks. Along with that substantial front office change and changes in team-building strategy can leave a team with a depleted farm. Couple that with Dana Brown letting future stars7 go to Toronto for a loan player, and you have a farm system of middling stars (according to rankings). Which is why adding Cam Smith to the farm rocks.
Now, disclaimer, just because a player is highly rated doesn’t mean he’ll make it far in the MLB or even to the MLB. I’m old enough to remember when Forrest Whitley was the next ace of Houston. With that disclaimed I present this:
Even if he isn’t expected in the MLB until 2026, it’s incredible to have him waiting in the wings if needed. And he’ll hopefully be developing on a championship-level minor league team. Cam Smith is also the 73rd-best prospect in baseball and the fifth-best third baseman. If he develops as hoped, there is a real chance we’re without a proper Bregman replacement for one season. This is of course all hope.
I was going to compare the stats of Bregman and Cam Smith, but Cam Smith has a whopping 147 plate appearances in the minor leagues. Comparing that to Bregman’s totals feels statistically insignificant. I have hope, for now. Dana Brown has proven my lack of faith in him right before, though.
All this to say, we may have actually gotten a good haul in the aggregate. Especially for a one-year player in Tucker. I’m hoping for the best, including the talk of potentially adding another player. There is a spring of faith in me from “it’s so over” to “we’re so back.” I still love Kyle Tucker, though, and will miss him dearly. The man who caught the last out of the 2022 World Series has left. We may have won the aggregate war, but there’s a hole in my heart.8 I do think, if everything goes according to plan, this trade was worth it.
I’m just saying:
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- Hate be upon him. ↩︎
- I fully believe the Willy Adames to the Giants deal has made Boras and Bregman rethink their position. Instead of asking for $200 million, I can see a world where they ask for $220 million. ↩︎
- As I’m writing this, apparently Nolan Arenado is blocking the trade to Houston. I actually believe this is good for Houston’s chances of resigning because I believe Boras is overplaying his hand. ↩︎
- Trading him during a wedding is kind of an ass move. ↩︎
- A two-month loan for future assets leaves a lot to be desired from that trade. If Kikuchi had stayed I may have changed my tune, but he didn’t. ↩︎
- I’ve always wanted to call him The Little Magician but that’s too Phillipe Coutinho coded. ↩︎
- Potentially. But for the purposes of this blog, they were. ↩︎
- Surprisingly, the second time in my life that’s happened. This one can be fixed with good ball, though. ↩︎
