Day one of free agency, when Saquon disappointed Tiki Barber and Texans’ rumor mill readers, was a great day to grab a tub of Breggy Bomb salsa (RIP) and watch fireworks fly. By the end of the day, Texans fans were experiencing states of jubilance only comparable to that first playoff game win, marked by Houston’s football triumvirate all scoring . Because, for the first time ever, Nick Caserio realized that the Texans have money to spend.
With the power of about $70 million in cap space, I wanted to believe that the Texans would pull out all the stops. Especially after CJ Stroud allowed Texans fans to believe in the Texans for the first time since massage man was called out by our future mayor. And, to be honest, I was with everyone else, and pretty sure a disgusting chunk of that available cap was going to beef up our backfield, the 29th best in the NFL. Of course, my relationship with the Texans has been the epitome of most of my time as a Houston sports fan (thank you Astros): A man needs hope to be properly destroyed. I have been mentally tarnished by an organization that may have had an owner Mario Kart room.
Obviously, the title of this blog gives everything away. I was not one of those people who broke down on day one, because that’s weird. I have lived long enough to see last minute deals – i.e., Justin Verlander – become pinnacles of the cause. And here we are, a few days removed from the miniature meltdown (a reactor that almost overheated on the Texans’ front office), ready to embrace 2024 like a prodigal son of football tradition.
Defense Wins Championships
The Texans were pretty average on defense in 2023. I say average like how a Twitter is propped up by reply accounts and porn bots. Sure, I love the hit tweets and news (rush defense), but the overall experience has just degraded (pass defense), leaving it feeling average. Which the Texans defense ended up as, even with the very obvious defense high points.
The biggest problem entering this free agency season was that a lot of those high points were about to ask for a lot of money. Historically (at least in the last 4 years), this would have been a death knell for the Texans in free agency. But, apparently, as pictured, there is always money in the cap space.
So just quickly going down the loss list: Maelik Collins, Johnathan Greenard, and Blake Cashman. I’ll talk about Cashman in a couple paragraphs, but I was incredibly sad to see Greenard go. The man was a menace to offensive lines. With the pass defense struggling, it was incredibly important to have a rusher like that on the line. Can’t say the same for Maelik Collins. He will be missed, but his contributions weren’t as important to the Texans. I also like the recoup of a 7th round draft pick.
With all that said, the Texans have picked up some heavy hitters to replace Greenard, and to a lesser extent, Collins. The Texans have turned a hole into a Three Gorges dam, slotting in Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry as replacements for their defensive line losses. Replacing a combined 17.5 sacks on the season, with 28 combined sacks is destructively good business. If Nick Caserio is available, I have a domed stadium he could finally sell as well with the level of business he’s doing.
Also Folorunso Fatukasi is a nice pickup (I’m not as familiar with him so I’m not going to lie about what I think).
There has been some hate toward the Azeez Al-Shaarir pickup. I’ve made it pretty clear in every other blog that I’m an advanced stats guy (I would commit heinous acts for Billy Bean). I’ll be the first to admit I am not familiar with Al-Shaarir’s game outside of the few times his name is mentioned against the Texans. Sue me, I write about most every other sport, there’s only so many players I can remember.
I do know Cashman’s game, and he’s a good at keeping his area of the field protected from the pass. That includes tackling both receivers and backs, and keeping coverage tight as to not allow a lot of passes into his field of protection. Looking at the stats, I don’t think this is a bad swap; there may even be an upside to Al-Shaarir. Both men had their career seasons last year, with Cashman picking up 106 tackles (56 solo), and Al-Shaarir picked up 163 tackles (84 solo). They had similar QB hits (5 to 6), and the same number of tackles for loss (9).
Pro Football Reference has also created an approximate value number to vaguely define a players’ performance relative to others. Since there are so many intangible stats in football, it’s impossible to have a WAR-like rating. With that said, Al-Shaarir and Cashman have similar AVs; Al-Shaarir’s 8 in 2023 to Cashman’s 7 in 2023. This just means, theoretically, Al-Shaarir is slightly better than Cashman. Is he $4 million better? Probably not. But I’m not convinced its as horrible of a replacement as some are making it out to be (“some are saying”).
Lastly, the Texans picking up three corners, Okudah, Johnson, and King, is good for depth. I imagine either Johnson or King will get cut before the season begins. I’m interested to see if Ryans puts Okudah as a starter, or keeps him as more of a slip-in CB for when his services are needed for a more technical, and less physical, wide receiver.
The Joe Mixon Question
When I first saw the news about the Joe Mixon trade, I had the Arrested Development “Her?” reaction. It’s not that I dislike Joe Mixon; he has led me through a couple unsuccessful fantasy campaigns. It’s not that I don’t think he’s a good running back; he’s been a reliable RB1 for the Bengals for many years. My. worry came more from the fact the Texans are replacing (?) Singletary with an aging RB who was on the chopping block.
I could sit here and tell you I don’t love bringing in a 26 year old running back. There are three constant NFL truth: the Washington Commanders will receive an F-, Aaron Rodgers will disappear in the playoffs, and a running back’s tenure will be limited. And while Mixon has cemented himself as a memorable player, the days of his RB1 are slipping faster than trying to cut on turf. I could also sit here and tell you Mixon has lost that explosiveness (the Bengals don’t play fast offensive football, because they can’t). And I could mention he’s not a good pass blocker. These could be blamed on an O-line that lets more men in than the US Army in a recruiting slump. But, in some capacity, there’s legitimacy to running back geriatric-fication.
I do find it hard to complain when he really only went for a 7th, in a draft that doesn’t have a lot of inspiring offensive players. And his contract isn’t terrible, offering a lot of incentives I don’t particularly imagine he’s going to meet.
With all that said, I’d imagine that Mixon is being brought in for a multitude of reasons. The Texans saw how cheap he’d be, and instead of battling in an active free agency market decided to take what the market gives. I also don’t think Mixon is going to be an RB1 for this team, most likely working as a pass catching RB, and in situations where they want his experience. And, in his first season, Dameon Pierce did really well. In his second season, I’ll just pretend like I was so focused on CJ I forgot he existed for the sake of running back optimism. Again, this may be a situation where he’s brought in as a shared light-RB1 or strong-RB2.
Another David Johnson situation may kill me, but I don’t think this is it. At least I hope, because I know CJ is the Lisan al Gaib of the Texans, but I’d rather the Texans provide him with some run support. And Mixon may surprise me, an internet nobody. Also, it’s potentially setting the Texans up for a compensatory pick, which would cancel out this trade (even though I don’t believe in zero sum trading, in economics or football).
The Miscellaneous and Drafting
The only real miscellaneous point so far is resigning Dalton Schultz (quickly, am I crazy, or is Dalton Schultz look ginger in about half his pictures and then brunette in the other half? I’ve never looked at him this long and I’ve spent 20 minutes combing through the entire internet and cannot decide. There may be a Dalton ginger conspiracy afoot. Like there must always be one in the NFL; a rule of one set by maybe Illuminati member Goodell). I have no strong feelings on this. Schultz clearly thrives under a CJ Stroud run-system, and that’s really all that matters right now; give hime weapons and it (probably an AFC Championship round exit at the most) will come.
I also may be extremely alone in this, but I was genuinely excited to see that the Texans had signed Tommy Townsend. Maybe I have fully bought into the “punters are people too” mindset, but I always love a good punter. I’m still rooting for Michael Turk to find a team. It’s exciting to pick up a Pro Bowl punter, even if last year was a down year for his downed behind the 20 stats.
I also think that the Texans’ drafting strategy is a little more clear after this free agency week. Beef up the offensive line. I’ll be honest I’m not up on a lot of the position players on the draft, but I’ve been reliably told there are some big ole Big 10 boys ready to be drafted. Maybe throw in a corner or two from rounds 3 and 7. I’d also imagine the Texans may trade to see if they can get a good WR pick to beef up the corps (even though my personal agenda is Tank Dell becomes a Hall of Famer), but I’m not feeling inspired by this draft class’ offensive skill players.
So, welcome to the official beginning of the 2024 Texans season.
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